Demand Forecast

Ensemble of seasonal naive, Holt-Winters and seasonal regression models, blended by inverse historical error, with 80% and 95% prediction intervals.

MarketWarehouseCategoryABC

Forecast units

1,268,958

Next 12 months, current selection

Forecast value (90d)

€13,279,948

At standard price

Forecast accuracy (MAPE)

8.7%

Rolling 12 months

Forecast bias

-8.7%

Under-forecasting

Actual demand and AI forecast

Units per month with 80% confidence band

Forecast accuracy tracking

Forecast vs. actual with monthly MAPE

Seasonality profiles

Monthly demand index by product behaviour

Model ensemble

Weighted by inverse historical error per SKU-site series

Ensemble (Holt-Winters + Regression + Seasonal Naive)

13,440 forecast rows

Each SKU-site series is fitted with seasonal naive, Holt-Winters (additive trend, multiplicative seasonality) and seasonal linear regression. Weights are the inverse of each model's historical absolute error, and prediction intervals derive from the residual standard deviation of the blended fit.

Forecast by SKU

1120 rows


ADH-TEC-109	ISOMAT FIX 600ml	RO-BUC	AX	1,501	4,774	23,584	€20,624	0.28
ADH-TEC-109	ISOMAT FIX 600ml	GR-THES	AX	1,386	4,628	18,737	€19,993	0.17
ADH-TEC-109	ISOMAT FIX 600ml	RS-BEL	AX	1,469	4,483	18,695	€19,367	0.13
ADH-TEC-109	ISOMAT FIX 600ml	GR-ATH	AX	1,521	4,444	17,065	€19,198	0.14
IND-SLF-090	DUROFLOOR-PSF 10kg Set	GR-THES	AX	1,536	4,276	14,670	€339,343	0.28
IND-SLF-090	DUROFLOOR-PSF 10kg Set	GR-ATH	AX	1,334	4,195	15,969	€332,915	0.21
IND-SLF-090	DUROFLOOR-PSF 10kg Set	RO-BUC	AX	1,351	4,142	19,281	€328,709	0.30
IND-SLF-090	DUROFLOOR-PSF 10kg Set	RS-BEL	AX	1,167	4,075	15,245	€323,392	0.29
ADH-TEC-109	ISOMAT FIX 600ml	DE-MUC	AX	1,163	3,701	13,657	€15,988	0.17
PUS-SEA-147	ISOMAT PU-SEAL 150ml	GR-THES	CX	1,386	3,654	12,227	€5,335	0.29
PUS-SEA-147	ISOMAT PU-SEAL 150ml	RO-BUC	CX	1,355	3,629	13,354	€5,298	0.37
PUS-SEA-147	ISOMAT PU-SEAL 150ml	GR-ATH	CX	1,365	3,483	11,955	€5,085	0.28
PUS-SEA-147	ISOMAT PU-SEAL 150ml	RS-BEL	CX	1,397	3,417	12,655	€4,989	0.34
PUS-MEM-078	ISOFLEX-PU 560 6kg	RO-BUC	AX	1,224	3,338	13,301	€300,387	0.30
IND-SLF-090	DUROFLOOR-PSF 10kg Set	TR-IST	AX	1,071	3,238	11,103	€256,968	0.19
PUS-MEM-078	ISOFLEX-PU 560 6kg	GR-THES	AX	1,325	3,232	11,102	€290,848	0.27
ADH-TEC-109	ISOMAT FIX 600ml	TR-IST	AX	989	3,013	11,760	€13,016	0.06
IND-SLF-090	DUROFLOOR-PSF 10kg Set	DE-MUC	AX	872	2,982	10,976	€236,652	0.20
PUS-MEM-078	ISOFLEX-PU 560 6kg	GR-ATH	AX	1,177	2,928	10,777	€263,491	0.28
PUS-MEM-078	ISOFLEX-PU 560 6kg	RS-BEL	AX	1,188	2,928	11,165	€263,491	0.29

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